1. Stay focused
2. Keep it simple
3. Keep it interactive
4. Plan to plan and allow enough time for this
5. Don’t settle for a simple high, medium and low
6. Avoid probabilities or ‘most likely’ scenarios
7. Avoid drafting out too many scenarios
8. Invent catch names for each scenario
9. Make the decision-makers own the scenarios
10. Budget sufficient resources for communicating scenarios.

Source: Schwartz and Ogilvy. Plotting your scenarios, 2004

Case Study: Protecting Value

John Smith is a 55-year-old pharmacist who has happily owned and managed a large pharmacy that dispenses 8,000 items per annum for 30 years. The pharmacy is situated next to a six-doctor practice. John struggles with his time and wishes he could provide more enhanced services, but doesn’t feel it is worth the trouble.

He just about manages to do 300 MURs each year and feels that’s enough. All of his life, John has worked hard to provide the best dispensing service for his patients and he makes a comfortable living. John has no children who want to come into his business and hopes to sell it when he retires.

He comes to you for opinions on what he should be planning for over the next 10 years. He is seeking advice as to where the pharmacy is heading and how he can protect his 30 years’ investment in his business. What obstacles might he face in the future?

How is the changing world going to affect his daily working life, and what strategic decisions should he be making over the next few years until he retires at the age of 70, when he would like to sell his pharmacy for the maximum amount possible.

Review the advice you would give John. What could you do differently to protect his business?

 

 

The next step is to put these ideas into action. Finish by recording your learning outcomes.