When scenario planning, it helps to narrate what is happening or might happen and to spell out what the reasons might be for the proposed situation. Once these forces have been identified, it is useful to rate them in order to gauge their potential influence and impact.

Optimistic forces – boom-time pharmacy

• Baby Boomers turning 70 and needing more care
• More demand for medications and hence more prescriptions
• Control of entry protects the pharmacy infrastructure
• The NHS’s need to save money drives more services to pharmacy
• More diagnostics and better screening identifies more patients with healthcare needs
• More funding diverted to pharmacy from secondary care
• Face to face requirements for services protects bricks and mortar pharmacy
• Low interest rates
• Low wages and general inflation
• New blockbuster drugs mean increased revenue
• A booming economy
• Banks are flushed with cash – easy access to funds
• Technology drives more business opportunities for pharmacy
• Robotics and new efficient models of dispensing reduce dispensary workload
• EPS helps reduce dispensing time by making it more efficient
• Online sales opportunities.

Pessimistic forces – squeezed pharmacy

• EPS leads to a ‘land grab’ as large players sign up nominations
• Proliferation of prescription factories
• Amazon, Pharmacy 2U, Tesco, Virgin Health, etc, become the biggest pharmacies.